SPACE WEATHER OPERATIONAL
READINESS DEVELOPMENT
TRACK 1
U-MICHIGAN

Selected works from the SWORD Track 1 team

Peer-reviewed papers and presentations from the SWORD Track 1 coupled-modeling team.

PEER-REVIEWED

2026

07 PAPERS
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Michigan Geospace Model With Ensemble Forecasting and Particle Filtering: Modeling the May 2024 Extreme Storm
Tóth, G., Dredger, P., Pulkkinen, T.
Space Weather, 24 (9), e2026SW005083
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Merged Interplanetary Data From L1: MIDL
DiMarco, C. C., Tóth, G., Pulkkinen, T. I.
Space Weather, 24 (8), e2026SW005146
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Conformalized Tensor Completion with Riemannian Optimization
Sun, H., Chen, Y.
Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 35 (2), 594–605
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Global energy circulation during a solar wind density pulse
Pulkkinen, T., Ala-Lahti, M., Brenner, A., Tóth, G., Welling, D., Keebler, T.
Space Weather, 24(4), e2025SW004836
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10 May 2024 Gannon Storm: Connecting Energy Flux With Field Aligned Currents and Cross Polar Cap Potential
Brenner, A., Pulkkinen, T. I., São Sabbas, E. F. M. T., Sibeck, D. G., Welling, D. T., Ridley, A. J., Gowtam, V. S., Hairston, M. R.
Space Weather, 24, e2025SW004776
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Updates, Examples and Validation of the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model
Ridley, A., Wu, C., Bukowski, A., Bell, J.
Space Weather, 24, 5, e2025SW004925
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Global MHD simulations: Magnetosphere-Ionosphere coupling dependence on conductance model
Pulkkinen, T. I., Dredger, P., Liemohn, M., Ridley, A., Tóth, G., Welling, D., et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 131, e2025JA034675

2025

11 PAPERS
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Solar wind – magnetosphere coupling under interim steady conditions
Brenner, A., Pulkkinen, T. I., Liemohn, M. W.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 130, e2025JA033771
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GeoDGP: One-hour ahead global probabilistic geomagnetic perturbation forecasting using deep Gaussian process
Chen, H., Tóth, G., Chen, Y., Zou, S., Huang, Z., Huan, X.
Space Weather, 23.6
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Decent estimate of CME arrival time from a data-assimilated ensemble in the Alfven wave solar atmosphere model (DECADE-AWSoM)
Chen, H., Sachdeva, N., Huang, Z., van der Holst, B., Manchester, W., Jivani, A., Zou, S., Chen, Y., Huan, X., Tóth, G.
Space Weather, 23.1
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Interplanetary magnetic field By controlled Alfven wings at Earth during an encounter of a coronal mass ejection
Chen, Y., Dong, C., Chen, L.-J., Sarantos, M., Burkholder, B. L.
Geophysical Research Letters, 52.6
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Globally-and hemispherically-integrated Joule heating rates during the 17 March 2015 geomagnetic storm, according to physics-based and empirical models
Tourgaidis, S., Baloukidis, D., Pirnaris, P., Sarris, T., Ridley, A., Lu, G.
Annales Geophysicae 43 (2), 881–899
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Viscosity-driven dynamics of the midnight temperature maximum in the low-latitude thermosphere
Nwankwo, O. G., Ridley, A. J.
JGR: Space Physics, 130 (12), e2025JA034011
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The Impact of Enhanced Extreme-ultraviolet Flux on the Upper Atmosphere of Earth-like Exoplanets
Hanson, L., Cohen, O., Ridley, A. J., Glocer, A.
The Astrophysical Journal, 992 (1), 58
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Effects of proton precipitation in global ionosphere thermosphere model during the 17 March 2013 geomagnetic storm
Chand, A. E., Ridley, A. J., Bowden, G., Brown, M.
JGR: Space Physics, 130 (10), e2025JA033935
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Formation mechanism and interhemispheric asymmetry of storm-enhanced density during April 2023 storm revealed by GITM
Peng, Y., Zou, S., Wang, Z., Wang, X., Ridley, A., Kwon, G., Smirnova, M.
JGR: Space Physics, 130 (9), e2025JA034034
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Comparisons between the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model and HIWIND measurements
Ridley, A. J., Alhothali, A.
JGR: Space Physics, 130 (7), e2024JA033521
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Temporal and spatial variability of multiscale neutral density perturbations during storm-time: Insights from multi-satellite observations
Hong, Y., Deng, Y., Cai, L., Ridley, A., Lu, G., Maute, A., Waters, C., Rowland, D.
Space Weather, 23 (6), e2025SW004406

2024

05 PAPERS
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The impact of solar wind magnetic field fluctuations on the magnetospheric energetics
Ala-Lahti, M., Pulkkinen, T. I., Brenner, A., Keebler, T., Al Shidi, Q., Hill, S., Welling, D.
Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL112922
⟶
Solar wind drivers of auroral omega bands
Cribb, V., Pulkkinen, T. I., Kepko, L., Gallardo-Lacourt, B., Donovan, E.
Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL109756
⟶
Magnetospheric sources of transpolar theta aurora: a simulation study
Hill, S., Pulkkinen, T. I., Al Shidi, Q., Brenner, A., Liemohn, M., Frey, H., Kullen, A., Zou, S., Mukhopadhyay, A.
Geophysical Research Letters, 51, 10
⟶
Sparse variational contaminated noise Gaussian process regression for forecasting geomagnetic perturbations
Iong, D., McAnear, M., Qu, Y., Zou, S., Tóth, G., Chen, Y.
Data Science in Science, 3.1
⟶
NEUVAC: Nonlinear extreme ultraviolet irradiance model for aeronomic calculations
Brandt, D. A., Ridley, A. J.
Space Weather, 22 (12), e2024SW004043
SUBMITTED / IN PRESS
⟶
Fourier Low-rank and Sparse Tensor for Efficient Tensor Completion
Li, J., Shang, J., Chen, Y.
arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.11261, 2025
PRESENTATIONS
2026
Quantifying and Removing Uncertainties in Ionosphere-Thermosphere Modeling
Bukowski, Ridley, Dredger, Pulkkinen
106th AMS Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2026
Artificial mass-loading for protection from major space weather events
Walsh, Welling
EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria
2025
Investigating the relative contribution of ion drag to thermospheric wind dynamics in high-latitude regions during a geomagnetic storm: a case study
Alhothali, Ridley, Akhavan-Tafti
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Studying the onset of reconnection during substorms using an embedded AMR-PIC model
Arshad, Y. Chen, Tóth
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Wave forcing from above and below: detecting traveling atmospheric disturbances and defining gravity waves under differing geomagnetic and terrestrial forcing conditions
Bossert, Becker, Ozturk, Vadas, Karasinski, Ridley
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Constructing an energy transport map from the solar wind to the inner magnetosphere
Brenner, Glocer, Fok, Bagby-Wright, Pulkkinen
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Exploring cross polar cap potential in global simulation of the Gannon storm
Brenner, Pulkkinen, Sibeck, São Sabbas, Welling, Ridley, Gowtam, Sivadas
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Revealing magnetosphere feedback on solar wind – magnetosphere coupling via numerical experiment
Brenner, Pulkkinen, Liemohn
EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria
2025
Geospace energy calculations
Brenner, Pulkkinen, Liemohn
SWMF User Meeting, Ann Arbor, MI
2025
Advancements in Modeling the Ionosphere-Thermosphere System's Response to Extreme Geomagnetic Storms
Bukowski, Ridley, Wu, Jayaraman
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
A knowledge-guided deep Gaussian process model for global geomagnetic perturbation forecasting
H. Chen, Tóth, Zou, Y. Chen, Huan
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Numerical tools for investigating foreshock physics and its global impacts
Y. Chen, Zou, Le, Walsh, Tóth, Zhou, Poh, Blanco-Cano, Wei, Belbase
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Correcting Empirical Model Densities During Geomagnetic Storms Using Commonly Available Two-Line Element Orbital Data
Christiansen, Ridley
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Effect of SWMF configuration on ground magnetometer power spectra predictions
Dredger, Welling, Burleigh, Mukhopadhyay, Pulkkinen
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Results from coupled Geospace-GITM runs
Dredger, Welling, Bukowski, Ridley, Pulkkinen
SWMF User Meeting, Ann Arbor, MI
2025
Effects of Improved Auroral Conductance on Magnetotail Dynamics
Gottesman, Welling, Bui, Mukhopadhyay, Pulkkinen, Liemohn
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Impact of collocated auroral precipitation on ionospheric dynamics
Hill, Jaynes, Chaddock, Spanswick, Liang
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
The Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model response to reversed two-cell convection produced during large-scale auroral precipitation in the polar cap
Hill, Jaynes, Ozturk, Pulkkinen et al.
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
The response of the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model to reversed two-cell convection produced during a theta aurora event
Hill, Jaynes, Ozturk, Pulkkinen, Berger
IAGA / IASPEI Joint Scientific Meeting, Lisbon, Portugal
2025
Beyond solar storms: theta auroras illuminate the path of solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere energy transfer during northward IMF conditions
Hill, Pulkkinen, Kullen, Brenner, Al Shidi, Ala-Lahti, Mukhopadhyay, Jaynes
ICARP IV, Boulder, CO
2025
Assessing Modeled High-Latitude Ionospheric Electrodynamics Using DMSP Observations
Jayaraman, Bukowski, Ridley, Pulkkinen
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
DMSP Comparisons with Ionospheric Electrodynamic Patterns
Jayaraman, Bukowski, Ridley, Pulkkinen
GEM Workshop, Des Moines, IA
2025
Quantifying Mesoscale Precipitation: Long-term, Large-scale Statistics of Pulsating Aurora Using an ML Identification Algorithm
Jaynes, Haag, McLennan, Troyer, Spanswick, Donovan, Wu, Chaddock, Chan
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Meso-scale polar cap flows and their impacts on polar cap patch evolution
Lee, Nishimura, Davidson, Younas, Pulkkinen, Nishitani, Shiokawa
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Simulating the Impact of Viscosity on Thermospheric Winds and Temperature Structure During Geomagnetic Storms
Nwankwo, Ridley
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Assessing High-latitude Electrodynamics: Validation and Characterization of Perturbations in the Coupled Ionosphere-Thermosphere System
Ozturk, Bossert, Ridley, Berger
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Auroral electrojet response to a solar wind density pulse
Pulkkinen, Gottesman, Welling, Brenner, Ala-Lahti
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
NASA SWORD Center: from solar wind to surface
Pulkkinen, Bukowski, Y. Chen, Dredger, Hill, Jayaraman, Ridley, Smirnova, Tóth, Welling, Zou
GEM Workshop, Des Moines, IA
2025
Theories and observations of the substorm onset
Pulkkinen
GEM Workshop, Des Moines, IA
2025
MHD-AEPIC: Coupled MHD-kinetic simulation of global, meso-, and small-scale magnetospheric phenomena
Pulkkinen, Keebler, Y. Chen, Wang
EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria
2025
SWORD Center of Excellence and SWMF: Starlink event 2022 as a case study
Pulkkinen, Ala-Lahti, Brenner, Keebler, Welling
SWMF User Meeting, Ann Arbor, MI
2025
Interaction of solar wind transients with the magnetosphere-ionosphere system
Pulkkinen
CSES Seminar, Los Alamos National Laboratory
2025
Calibrating and fusing ground-based and GOLD-inferred TEC using quantile mapping technique
Smirnova, Zou, Kwon
GEM-CEDAR Workshop, Des Moines, IA
2025
Next-generation Space Weather Modeling Framework with data assimilation, uncertainty quantification, and machine learning: final year
Tóth, Y. Chen, Huan, van der Holst, Zou, Jivani, H. Chen, An, Y. Chen, Sachdeva, Huang, Manchester
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Exploring the Unusual Day Side Aurora of January 3, 2020
Welling, Rewoldt, Gottesman, Dredger, Fasel
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Two-way SWMF-GITM coupling for space weather applications
Welling, Dredger, Burleigh, Bukowski, Ridley, Tóth, Pulkkinen
AMS Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
One Step Closer with GITM: How Lower Atmospheric Tides Control the Ionosphere-Thermosphere
Wu, Ridley
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2025
Multi-Scale Density Structures in the Polar Ionosphere: Progress, Challenges, and Outlook
Zou
AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA
2024
Statistics of Energy Transfer Through the Magnetopause from Spacecraft Observations and Comparison to Global Simulations
Ala-Lahti, Pulkkinen, Brenner, Tribu, Keebler
AGU Fall Meeting, Washington, DC
2024
The Impact of Solar Wind ULF Fluctuations on Magnetospheric Energetics
Ala-Lahti, Pulkkinen, Brenner, Al Shidi, Hill
GEM Workshop, Fort Collins, CO
2024
The Space Weather Operational Readiness Development (SWORD) Center — an international focal point for orbital space weather forecasting research
Berger, Pulkkinen, Baker, Gombosi, and the SWORD Team
COSPAR General Assembly, Busan, South Korea
2024
The Space Weather Operational Readiness Development (SWORD) Center improving orbital space weather forecasting via model coupling and data assimilation
Berger, Pulkkinen, Baker, Gombosi, and the SWORD Team
American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Baltimore, MD
2024
Improving thermospheric neutral density forecasting with the NOAA/WAM-IPE model
Berger, Fang, Fuller-Rowell, Kubaryk, Maruyama, Sutton, Yudin, Huang, Pulkkinen, Ridley, Tóth, Welling, Zou
COSPAR General Assembly, Busan, South Korea
2024
Magnetosphere Energy Transport Analysis for the May 15, 2005 Theta Aurora Event
Brenner, Hill, Pulkkinen, Kullen
AGU Fall Meeting, Washington, DC
2024
Numerical modeling of solar wind-magnetosphere interactions: MHD and beyond-MHD models
Chen, Y.
GEM Workshop Plenary Session, Fort Collins, CO
2024
Exploring solar wind drivers of omega bands
Cribb, Pulkkinen, Gallardo-Lacourt, Kepko, Ratzlaff, Donovan
EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria
2024
Role of auroral omega bands in storm and substorm processes
Cribb, Pulkkinen, Gallardo-Lacourt, Kepko, Partamies
AGU Fall Meeting, Washington, DC
2024
Complex polar cap and magnetotail configurations during theta aurora formation
Hill, Pulkkinen, Kullen, Ala-Lahti, Brenner, Al Shidi, Mukhopadhyay
AGU Fall Meeting, Washington, DC
2024
Mesoscale dynamics driven by an external energy pulse during a moderate magnetic storm
Pulkkinen, Brenner, Ala-Lahti, Manwatkar, Cribb, Kepko, Mann, Parry, Cordell
AGU Fall Meeting, Washington, DC
2024
Fusing GOLD Satellite-Derived and Ground-Based TEC for Global Ionosphere Analysis
Smirnova, Zou, Hu
AGU Fall Meeting, Washington, DC
2024
Modeling the Gannon Storm with the SWMF: impacts of input data and model setup
Tóth, Dredger, Huang, Welling, Pulkkinen, H. Chen
May 2024 Solar & Geospace Superstorm Workshop, JHU/APL, MD