SPACE WEATHER OPERATIONAL
READINESS DEVELOPMENT
TRACK 1
U-MICHIGAN
NASA SPACE WEATHER CENTER OF EXCELLENCE · TRACK 1

Space weather models from the Sun to the surface

The Space Weather Operational Readiness Development (SWORD) Center of Excellence, led by principal investigator Dr. Thomas Berger at the National Center for Atmospheric Research/High Altitude Observatory, aims to improve our ability to predict and understand the impact of space weather events on satellites in low Earth orbit and in cis lunar space.

The primary focus of SWORD is to predict how the geospace environment responds to the constantly changing output of the Sun throughout its magnetic cycle, effectively connecting forecasting models of space weather in both the thermosphere and ionosphere. In addition to physics-based models, SWORD employs advanced data assimilation methods to improve the ability to forecast conditions during geomagnetic storms, which is crucial for protecting satellites, airlines, and other orbital space operations from any adverse effects of geomagnetic storms.

Track 1 led by University of Michigan links plasma physics models for the near-Earth space environment with neutral gas models for the upper and lower atmosphere targeting improvements to space weather forecasts in the low-Earth orbit environment.

SWORD Track 1 develops and validates coupled first-principles models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system, bridging research-grade physics with operational forecasting to protect assets in geospace. Led by the University of Michigan, Track 1 unites seven partner institutions and NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

What SWORD delivers: Physics-based models for the space environment starting from solar wind through the magnetosphere to the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. Our special focus within SWORD is the ionospheric TEC and upper atmosphere neutral density, but the modeling suite lends itself to other applications such as ground-based magnetic disturbances as well. If you are a space weather end-user and interested in learning more, please contact us!

Read the research agenda Our consortium
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CONSORTIUM
CU BoulderU Alaska FairbanksU-MichiganESMFU Iowa
RECENT WORK
FEATURED RESULT
Updates, Examples and Validation of the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model
A detailed description of the significantly upgraded GITM v2 model and its validation
Ridley, A., Wu, C., Bukowski, A., Bell, J., Space Weather, 24, 5, doi:10.1029/2025SW004925
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FEATURED RESULT
A large statistics of global MHD simulations reveals the dependence of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling on the way auroral physics is included in the models
A systematic comparison of two conductance formulations in the SWMF/Geospace model shows that the choice of ionospheric conductance model impacts the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and dynamical evolution of the coupled system. Improving on the models will provide more accurate predictions for low-Earth orbit satellite tracks and space-based communication system disturbances.
Pulkkinen, T. I., Dredger, P., Liemohn, M., Ridley, A., Tóth, G., Welling, D., et al. - JGR: Space Physics, 131, doi:10.1029/2025JA034675
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RESEARCH TASKS
Couple two operational models currently running at the Space Weather Prediction Center to a chain of models from the solar wind through the geospace to the atmosphere and ground
Develop a NUOPC coupler in the ESMF framework between Geospace and IPE.
Enhance the performance of the currently operational IPE model for the ionosphere by developing a new global electric field description
Build a hemisphere-coupled solver with variable conductivity for sub-auroral and low-latitude electrodynamics.
Validate a broad variety of models with observations for the upper atmosphere and ionosphere to determine the models that best suit the operational applications
Develop the Michigan Ionosphere Library for Electrodynamics (MILE) that feeds a variety of electric field and auroral models to a suite of thermospheric models. With this system, validate the different combinations with low-Earth orbit measurements of atmospheric densities and total electron content.
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